The End of Affirmative Action: One Year Later
In June 2023, the Supreme Court of the United States issued a landmark ruling in Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard, effectively ending the use of race-conscious admissions in higher education. The academic world braced for impact, predicting significant shifts in the demographic makeup of elite universities. Now, the first freshman class admitted under these new constraints—the Class of 2028—has arrived on campus. The enrollment data released this fall provides the first concrete look at how the ban on affirmative action is reshaping the American university landscape.
A Landscape of Disparate Outcomes
The release of demographic data for the Class of 2028 has not shown a uniform trend across all elite institutions. Instead, the results are a mix of sharp declines in underrepresented minority enrollment at some schools and surprising stability at others.
While almost all highly selective colleges anticipated a drop in diversity, the severity varied wildly depending on the institution’s specific admissions policies, such as the use of standardized testing or legacy preferences.
The Sharp Declines: MIT and Amherst
The most dramatic changes occurred at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Amherst College. These institutions provided the clearest examples of the ruling’s immediate impact.
MIT reported that the percentage of Black students in its incoming class dropped to 5%, down significantly from 15% in previous years. Similarly, Hispanic and Latino enrollment fell from 16% to 11%. Conversely, Asian American enrollment at MIT surged, rising from 40% to 47%.
MIT officials, including Dean of Admissions Stu Schmill, noted that the university does not use legacy admissions, a policy that favors children of alumni. Without race as a lever and with no legacy pool to manipulate, the numbers shifted purely based on the remaining academic and socioeconomic criteria.
Amherst College saw an even starker decline. The enrollment of Black students plummeted to 3% from 11% the prior year. This drop occurred despite Amherst’s aggressive attempts to recruit from lower-income backgrounds, suggesting that socioeconomic indicators alone may not be enough to replicate previous levels of racial diversity.
The Outliers: Yale and Princeton
In contrast to MIT and Amherst, several Ivy League institutions reported numbers that remained largely unchanged.
Yale University reported that the percentage of Black students in the Class of 2028 remained steady at 14%, identical to the previous year. Princeton University saw only minor fluctuations, with Hispanic enrollment remaining flat and Black enrollment dipping slightly but remaining comparable to historical averages.
Admissions experts suggest these schools may have relied heavily on specific recruitment strategies permitted by the court, such as:
- Geographic targeting (recruiting from specific zip codes).
- Focusing on the personal essay (where students can discuss how race affected their lives).
- Heavily weighting socioeconomic hardship.
Other Notable Shifts
- Brown University: Reported a 40% decline in Black student enrollment and a 29% drop in Hispanic student enrollment.
- Tufts University: Saw Black enrollment drop to 4.7% from 7.3%.
- UNC Chapel Hill: One of the defendants in the Supreme Court case saw Black enrollment fall from 10.5% to 7.8%.
The Rise of Asian American Enrollment
A central argument in the lawsuit brought by Students for Fair Admissions was that affirmative action policies penalized Asian American applicants. With race removed from the equation, many expected this demographic to see universal gains.
The reality was more complex. While MIT saw a 7-point jump in Asian American enrollment, other schools did not follow the same pattern.
- Yale: Asian American enrollment actually fell to 24% from 30%.
- Duke: Asian enrollment dropped from 35% to 29%.
- Harvard: Remained flat, with Asian American students making up 37% of the class, identical to the prior year.
This data complicates the narrative that Asian American students were uniformly kept out of elite spots solely due to race-conscious admissions. It suggests that other factors, such as intended major, geography, and yield rates (the percentage of accepted students who choose to attend), play a massive role.
Strategies for Diversity Without Race
Universities spent the year following the ruling overhauling their admissions rubrics to maintain diversity within the bounds of the law. The Class of 2028 statistics reflect the success—or failure—of these new strategies.
Socioeconomic Focus
Many schools, including the University of Virginia and Duke, placed a heavier emphasis on Pell Grant eligibility and first-generation status. Duke, for example, saw a slight increase in Hispanic enrollment, which they attributed to expanded financial aid offers and targeted recruitment in rural areas of the Carolinas.
The “Essay Loophole”
Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in the majority opinion that universities could still consider “an applicant’s discussion of how race affected his or her life, be it through discrimination, inspiration, or otherwise.”
Many admissions offices added specific supplemental essay questions inviting students to discuss their background or community. This allowed admissions officers to understand a student’s lived experience without checking a demographic box. However, the data from Brown and Amherst suggests this method is not a direct replacement for affirmative action.
The Standardized Testing Debate
This year also marked a return to required standardized testing (SAT/ACT) for schools like MIT, Dartmouth, Yale, and Brown.
MIT argues that standardized tests actually help them identify talented students from under-resourced high schools who might otherwise be overlooked. However, critics argue that the correlation between test scores and household income makes it harder to admit a socioeconomically diverse class when tests are mandatory.
Moving Beyond Year One
It is important to view these statistics as a snapshot of a transition year. Admissions offices were scrambling to interpret the new law, and high school seniors applied with uncertainty about how to present themselves.
In the coming years, we can expect universities to refine their recruitment pipelines. Schools may increase transfer admissions from community colleges or eliminate legacy admissions entirely—as Amherst, Wesleyan, and Johns Hopkins have already done—to create more space for unhooked applicants.
The Class of 2028 proves that a colorblind admissions process yields different results depending on the institution’s unique culture and criteria. While the “end of affirmative action” caused a predicted drop in diversity at STEM-focused schools like MIT, the stability at Yale proves that institutional priorities and recruitment budgets still have the power to shape a class.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did all Ivy League schools see a drop in diversity? No. While Brown and Harvard saw declines in certain demographics, Yale and Princeton maintained diversity numbers similar to previous years. The impact was not uniform across the Ivy League.
Why did MIT’s numbers change so drastically? MIT does not use legacy admissions and relies heavily on standardized test scores. Without the ability to use race as a specific “plus” factor, the demographic makeup shifted strictly toward the highest academic metrics in their applicant pool, resulting in fewer Black and Hispanic students and more Asian American students.
Is it illegal for students to write about race in their essays? No. The Supreme Court ruling specifically stated that students can discuss how race has impacted their lives (e.g., overcoming discrimination or finding inspiration in their heritage). Colleges can consider these personal stories, but they cannot give points simply for being a certain race.
Did Asian American enrollment go up everywhere? No. While it rose significantly at MIT, it remained flat at Harvard and actually decreased at Yale and Duke. This suggests that the removal of affirmative action did not automatically result in more spots for Asian American applicants at every institution.